It’s hard to imagine a worse end to the season than the one Saints fans had to endure, and it feels like this article is just picking on them but this has to be said. Don’t overpay for quarterback Drew Brees in your 2019 fantasy drafts.
No, this isn’t another <Spongebob mocking meme> Brees is too old to play well anymore </Spongebob mocking meme> article. It’s just another example of perception vs. reality and fantasy vs. reality.
You may be tempted to look at the Saints offense and recall all the MVP talk surrounding Brees and think he’s worthy of being one of the first five or six QBs off the board. Most fantasy analysts would caution against that, though, with most early rankings having him in the QB7-8 range. Even in that spot, some might value his name more than his production.
Brees is a couple years removed from his awesome seasons. He finished as QB13 in terms of fantasy points per game in 2017 and was QB7 this past season. Solid, sure, but not spectacular. But one area of his game has been very concerning to fantasy owners over the last couple years: his fantasy playoff production.
From Week 14 on in 2018, Brees was the No. 22 QB on a points per game basis. That’s pretty significant seeing as his missed game in Week 17 isn’t being held against him. During that same timeframe in 2017, he was QB14. In essence, he’s come up short during the most critical times for fantasy owners.
So what do you do with that information? The idea you can draft someone, play them for several weeks then trade them at full value is a nice pipe dream. However, that rarely plays out well in practice. All it means is that you shouldn’t go out of your way to reach for Brees on draft day.
He’ll be in the same area as the Cam Newtons, Jared Goffs and Russell Wilsons of the world, which is right where he should be. Don’t put extra emphasis on name value or perceived MVP production.
Brees should go somewhere in the 8th round of fantasy drafts as QB8 or QB9.